*The content of this article is by Amy Hong team提供
With the 7-year ARM interest rate for owner-occupied housing continuing to approach2.0%Mark,The property market in the Bay Area ushered in a hot market for gold, nine and silver.However, every year there are many newbies who are pureBy feelingAfter entering the market and moving in, I found that the house or community was not ideal.The problem isWhere?If you lookAfter the last house, I just read the disclosures and place an order in a hurry, which is unfortunate.You only did the first step right! Please try to answer the following simple questions:
Image source travelguru.com
1) What is the average annual return on investment of the community in the last 10 years?Is this community better or worse than the trend of nearby communities?
2) How mobile is the community where the house is located?Are the listings increasing or decreasing?How long can each house on sale be sold?
3) Who are the residents of this community?What is the proportion of the Asian population?Are white-collar workers moving in or out every year?
If you don’t find the answer, it’s normal. This is the relationship between individual investors and institutional investors.Information asymmetryA microcosm of, Disclosures It is even more impossible to give you an answer!But the above questions will directly determine theDevelopment potential!then what should we do?With these questions, we askedTrueRealtor(Real estate big data consulting company) The team of co-founder Dr. Amy Hong, brings you exclusive dry goods, and an in-depth interpretation of how to use it scientificallyLData breaks information asymmetry and unearths its own hidden corners in the Bay Area property market.
As "Dr. Amy Real Estate Innovation Lecture 》The first part of the series, the recommended reading time for this article is 12 minutes, the full textThe summary is as follows :
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The Magic of Big Data – Introduction to TrueRealtor
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Big Data Application Tour — Intensive Reading of Santa Clara
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Exclusive advantage — Recruitment
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The next preview-follow us
01
The Magic of Big Data – Introduction to TrueRealtor
TrueRealtor is a real estate business with the Amy team as the core teamdataConsulting company, mainly serving senior individual investors and commercial organizations.Built into the system for the past 25 yearsAll houses in the Bay AreaTransaction database, Covering detailed portraits from the rate of return, geographic location, community characteristics, school district, down payment ratio, interest rate, and even the age and ethnicity of buyers and sellers.And use big data and AI technology to fully explore the property market in the Bay AreaSecret features.Not only can we easily answer the above questions for any house, but also use these overwhelmingInformation advantageMake us agentHouse sales achieve twice the result with half the effort :
Buying a house-evaluation of the potential of the target house
Due to the lack of detailed data reference, most of the small partners are still onlyBy feeling!But in fact, in the Bay AreaIn different cities, different zip codes and even different communitiesThe difference between the degree of return and the degree of development is very significant.Only find a way to dig deep into the community and even the street level,So that you can quickly get stuck!In this article, we will take Santa Clara's main force Zip 95051 as an example to show you how TrueRealtor knows itself and the enemy!
Image source unsplash@ddinuzzo
Selling a house-smart marketing of listed houses
Traditional house sales are mostly Passive sales types, passively waiting for buyers to browse.On the other hand, TrueRealtor can compare historical data to calculate the brokers and buyers that are more likely to make transactions in the community.Intelligent advertising fixed-point placement, So the house we sell on behalf ofExposure rate much higher than the market average.Our next-generation products will be able to recommend the most popular decoration styles based on the ethnicity and age characteristics of local residents, making the seller's house stand out!
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Big data takes you to read Santa Clara
Huge room for appreciation: Active trading brings greater price fluctuations and profit margins.If you can with the assistance of the expert teamFully understand the characteristics of the area, It is relatively easy to buy apartments with more potential.This year, the Amy team serves customersPoint selectionMost houses bought after the target areaThe appreciation has exceeded 10%.
The figure below shows the big data classification results of the Santa Clara -95051 parcel (TrueRealtor supports multi-level parcel subdivision, due to space limitations, this article mainly shows first-level sub-parcels).Overall, 95051 benefited from its geographical location, community environment, and some school districts. It is the Zip with the highest average price and the most stable performance in Santa Clara, butThe rate of return on investment depends on the specific community.Let's explain the characteristics of each sub-lot in detail one by one.
Amy-051-A
main feature: As the southernmost plot of the 95051 area, this area covers about 1 square mile and is locatedCupertino High School jurisdiction.In the past 25 years, a total of 1335 Single Family units have been sold.According to the average price chart of the districts shown below, it can be seen that the average price is in a clear leading position among all the land in Santa Clara.And after 05, the advantages gradually increased, and the gap with the other three plots was obvious.Resilience, This area is also 2008 and2018 twiceMost adjustedIt is a land that is resistant to falling (again verifying the resistant nature of a good school district).
people suitble: Currently, Asians in this area have accounted for more than 40% of residents, and the trend is steady.The average selling price in this area this year is US$185 million, soBudget less than 200 million And friends who like the Cupertino school district can focus on it.But this areathis yearAt present, only about 35 sets of Single Family have been sold. Low supplyWill be a challenge for buyers.
Amy-051-B
main feature: The plot is located on the north side of Prunderige AVE, next to the Apple Spaceship Headquarters in the west, covering an area of about 1 square kilometer. The average price is currently the second largest in the area. In the past 25 yearsA total of 1389 sets of Single Family were sold.The 25-year rate of return is also in the second range in this area.Due to historical reasons, there are relatively few Asians in this area, but the area is alsoThe fastest iteration in the four plots, Many communitiesThe microenvironment has become quite good.Our model essentially subdivides the area from west to east into four secondary sub-lots, which will not be expanded here (please consult Amy for details).
people suitble: The area sold 43 Singles this year, with an average price of US$168 million. Housing supply is also tight.It is suitable for buyers with a budget of more than 150 million US dollars and not too demanding on the school district.
Image source unsplash interior
Amy-051-C
main feature : The land is located north of HomeStead and south of Highway 82. It covers an area of approximately 1.76 square miles. A total of 25 Single Family units have been sold in the past 1197 years. The area ranks low in the total return of 95051 over the past 25 years, and it is more resilient Relatively poor.There are more apartments in this area at the same time, and the community has relatively high population mobility.
But what’s interesting is that because there are many entry-level single families in this area, and a large number of entry-level buyers happened to enter during the epidemic, the overall return rate in 2020 actually slightly exceeds that of Area A.Temporarily ranked first.
people suitble : 44 sets of Single were sold in the district this year, with an average price of US$144 million.Due to its high volatility, this area has always been sought after by many professional Flipper (small investment and high amplitude).More suitable to be ableInvestors who accept greater volatility.
Amy-051-D
main feature : This plot is the most northerly plot of 95051, directly bordering 95054 to the north, and covers an area of approximately 2.42 square miles. A total of 25 Single Family units have been sold in the past 2986 years. The comprehensive return rate in the past 25 years is at the bottom, but only It is slightly behind.Commuting in this area has obvious advantages, and there are also more entry-level Single Family.且High rent-to-sale ratio.
The three secondary subplots are as follows:
1) 051-D-1: The fan-shaped residential area formed around Adrian Wilcox High School. The community is arranged in a regular and orderly manner. However, it is adjacent to the CalTrain line in the north and should be avoided.
2) 051-D-2: Flowler Ave is a residential area on the central axis, the community is similar to D-1, and the entry-level units are mainly.There are some commercial shops in the south, and you can choose houses that are more northerly.
3) 051-D-3: Residential areas along Bowers Ave.Note that the residential areas east of Bowers Ave are affected by San Tomas Expy, and their ability to maintain value is somewhat suppressed.
people suitble : 91 sets of Single were sold in this area this year, and the supply is relatively abundant.The average selling price this year is also $144 million.It is suitable for entry-level buyers who have high commuting requirements and hope to rent a house.
95051 Overall trend
The above chart shows the year-by-year housing supply trend of all four plots (Single Family).It can be seen that the supply in various districts has been relatively stable in recent years (the D district is more abundant, while the A district is relatively reluctant to sell), which also means that the difficulty of entering the market will not be too large, and the market is gestating opportunities!
95051 Transaction Case
Using TrueRealtor big dataAfter a comprehensive analysis of the potential of the house, Amy team’s almostEach set of transactionsAll reachedSatisfactory return.Here is a brief list of our recent transactions in this area:
2716 Donovan Ave (Zone D): In September 2020, the transaction price was 9 million US dollars. At the same time, the transaction price of the same apartment was as high as 122 million US dollars (comp: 146 Jerald Ave), and the difference was as high as 2960 US dollars.
Image source unsplash @neonbrand
730 Salberg Ave. (Zone B): The transaction price in June 2020 was US$6 million. The current market value is US$122.5 million. The transaction price of the same apartment next door is as high as US$140 million (comp: 163 Salberg Ave), with a price difference of US$724.
3035Warburton(Zone B): The transaction price was 2020 million US dollars in April 4, and the current market value is 120 million US dollars (the nearby comp is less, according to the redfin valuation).
In addition, we have completed theMost popular plots'S reviewThe research results will also be published on the official account of the AmyHong team one after another. Readers who want to know other zips please scan the code (mark ZipCode), we will give priority to release according to the degree of attention!At the same time, buyers/sellers are welcome to discuss cooperation.we willEnsure that the transaction price of each house can withstand market scrutiny.
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Advantages of the Amy team — Recruitment
Dr. Amy Hong’s team has recently made full use of big data models to study land parcels and industries in the Bay Area.The forefront of the industry, Whether it is actually dealing in housing sales or helping investors implement strategic layouts, they all have an overwhelming information advantage.
As Googain & MaxReal North San Jose Regional Manager (Branch Manger), Amy also eagerly looks forward toRealtors & Loan OfficersJoin . (Interview required,Full-time or part-time is acceptable).
Careers
Googain & MaxReal is one of the largest, best-reputed, and most competitive real estate and loan companies in the Bay Area. If you want to provide customers with a one-stop service of real estate and loans, Googain & MaxReal is the best platform.
Real estate business (MaxReal)—The company's more than 600 registered brokers, an unparalleled broker training system and a strong network in the real estate industry provide a strong backing for the majority of brokers.
Loan business (Googain)-The company currently ranks first among all Brokers in the Bay Area in terms of loan business scale, and is far ahead.The company employs a full-time In house Underwriter/Loan Processor team, whose professionalism and business processing speed far exceed those of its peers.
Based in the North San Jose Branch, the Amy team has been deeply involved in the big data analysis market for many years. Here you will be more intimately exposed to the changes that big data and AI have brought to the real estate industry.
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The next preview-follow us
In the next live lecture, Dr. Amy will use TrueRealtor's powerful real estate agentReal-time search engine, To uncover the mystery of the real estate industry in the Bay Area for readers, readers who are interested in learning about the brokerage industry, please ask Amy for the lecture schedule, don’t miss it!
Amy Hong|PhD
Data Consultation|House Trading|Broker Training
